How COVID spending affects fiscal health

In the last four years the federal government has both cut government revenue and dramatically increased spending. It’s an unsettling combination, the precise long-term results of which will be debated by economists like myself until the cows come home. But at least one thing is already certain: The fiscal impact of all the federal COVID-19 spending over the last year warrants much more public attention than it has thus far received.

When the pandemic arrived 12 months ago the uncertainty surrounding its economic impacts prompted an unprecedented congressional response and, ultimately, histori...